Today’s Ladbrokes Chester Cup (3.05 p.m.), run over a distance of more than two miles and two furlongs, is an intriguing affair with 15 runners competing for a first prize of more than £86,000.
The best handicapped horse on the basis of his hurdles form is the likely favourite East India Dock, who was third in the Grade 1 JCB Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March and can run off a lenient official flat mark of 89 today.
The slight downsides to his chances are that he is untried at such a marathon trip as this on the flat and he has no experience of the unique twists and turns of Chester. East India Dock is the most likely winner of the race but at odds of 7-2 I am happy to look elsewhere.
Hot Fuss, the selection of two top tipsters in Tom Segal (Pricewise in the Racing Post) and Matt Brocklebank (sportinglife.com), also ran a cracker at the Cheltenham Festival when fourth, despite being too close to a red-hot pace, in the Fred Winter juvenile handicap hurdle. He, too, has a winning chance but he is not as well handicapped on the flat as he is over hurdles and he would definitely prefer softer ground.
I put up Zoffee each way for this race seven days ago at 20-1 and he has all but halved in price. He has drawn stall four today which is pretty much perfect and he goes well fresh too. Furthermore, his trainer Hugo Palmer had a double at the course yesterday so Zoffee clearly has a big chance of landing this race for the second year in succession.
The likes of Irish-trained Leinster and the Andrew Balding-trained Who’s Glen have big shouts but for my second selection in the race I will back CABALLO DE MAR for the in-form George Scott/Callum Shepherd trainer/jockey combination.
The four-year-old gelding is on a six-timer after five wins on the all-weather and he is 5 lbs well in because the handicapper would put him up to a mark of 93 if he was allowed to evaluate his most recent form. Instead, in the early-closing handicap, the horse can run off a mark of 88 today. His draw in stall eight is acceptable too.
Will he be as good on turf as he is on the all-weather? I don’t know but his handler tells the Racing Post today: ‘Going back to turf isn’t a concern and he clearly enjoys going left-handed.’ Back Caballo De Mar 1 point each way at 6-1 with Paddy Power paying five places.
There is a quality card at Ascot tomorrow when the Schweppes Victoria Cup (2.40 p.m.) is another fascinating contest with 19 runners competing for a first prize of more than £51,000.
Course and distance form is a big plus on Ascot’s seven-furlong straight course and so my suggestion is to back METAL MERCHANT trained by Jack Channon and ridden by David Probert.
The five-year-old gelding likes these big field handicaps having won the 21-runner Newbury Spring Cup in April last year off an official mark of 91.
Apart from his course and distance win at Ascot in October 2023, Metal Merchant ran a big race when fourth in the Moet & Chandon International Stakes here in July last year, a race where the form could hardly have worked out better.
His official mark of 96 gives him a winning chance tomorrow. Back Metal Merchant 1 point each way at 11-1 with SkyBet offering a generous seven places, rather than backing him a point bigger with other bookmakers but with less places.
There are dangers aplenty including Gleneagle Bay, a horse with top form in big handicaps in Ireland last season and who will be ridden by Hollie Doyle tomorrow. However, he does not have form at Ascot and he might prefer softer ground too so, on balance, I will stay with just the one selection in the race.
Pending:
1 point each way Zoffee at 20-1 for the Chester Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Caballo de Mar at 6-1 for the Chester Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Metal Merchant at 11-1 for the Victoria Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 7 places.
Last weekend: – 4 points.
1 point each way Obelix at 11/2 for the Thirsk Hunt Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced.
1 point each way Green Impact at 12-1 for 2000 Guineas, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. Unplaced.
2025 flat season running total – 4 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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