Astute Scottish trainer Jim Goldie cannot hide his admiration for his five-year-old sprinter AMERICAN AFFAIR, who runs at Haydock tomorrow in the Group 2 Betfred Temple Stakes (3.30 p.m.).
Goldie knows a thing or two about decent speedsters having trained the likes of Jack Dexter and Hawkeyethenoo in recent years – the former, in fact, finished second in the Temple Stakes a decade ago.
The veteran handler said this week that American Affair was ‘very exciting’ and up there with the best sprinters he had trained which is why Goldie has given his stable star an entry in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot next month.
American Affair has won two 5 furlong handicaps already this year, most recently at York off an official rating of 98. He will have to step up on that run tomorrow to win but I am suggesting a 2 points win bet for him to do just that. That price is available with most bookies but a few are going only 9-2.
There are dangers aplenty including Ed Walker’s Mgheera. Like Goldie, Walker rates his horse very highly and he hopes his five-year-old mare can win for a second successive time this season after landing a decent Group 3 contest at Longchamp earlier this month.
Like American Affair, Mgheera will love the likely quick ground at Haydock. The rain forecast for overnight is expected to be fairly light and the ground is currently described as ‘good to firm, good in places’, so it is difficult to see it being any softer than ‘good’ by the off.
In Ireland tomorrow, Field of Gold will try to go one better in the Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas (3.40 p.m.) than when he was close second in the Betfred 2000 Guineas at Newmarket earlier this month. He’s the most likely winner of this Grade 1 contest but odds of odds on are too short.
I was tempted to back Jessica Harrington’s colt Hotazhellbut he would prefer softer ground that he will encounter at The Curragh tomorrow and this is his seasonal debut. He may need a longer trip, too, to be seen as his best.
On the plus side, this colt took some decent scalps last season when winning four times and an official rating of 117 puts him just 3lb behind the favourite. The unbeaten Cosmic Year is very much in the reckoning too but odds of around 4-1 seem skinny for what he has achieved on the racetrack. On balance, this is a race to watch and enjoy.
The 48-hour declarations are due later this morning for Sunday’s Tattersalls Gold Cup at The Curragh. (3.05 p.m.). If there was plenty of rain in the forecast, I would have wanted to back Ed Walker’s progressive horse Almaqam but, with little of the wet stuff likely to fall at the track, he must be a doubtful runner. He could well head to Longchamp instead this weekend where the ground is now ‘soft’.
In fact, I am going to stay loyal to a horse that ran some big races for the column at each way prices last season: trainer Clive Cox’s GHOSTWRITER. Both the trip of just over 1 mile 2 furlongs and the likely fast ground will be ideal and, although he faces tough opposition, I hope this will be the day he lands a big Grade 1 pot.
Without knowing the final field or the odds at the time of writing, I will simply suggest 2 points win at Starting Price (although if there are more than eight runners and he is 5-1 or more, some might prefer an each way play.
I have been looking ahead to some of the big races at Royal Ascot and not a lot jumps out at me in terms of value bets. However, I am keen to take on the Aidan O’Brien horses at the top of the market in the meeting’s feature race, the Ascot Gold Cup on 19 June.
My sources tell me Kyprios, the winner of 17 of his 21 starts, is not a certain runner after finishing slightly lame when winning at Leopardstown last month. Stablemate Illinois is an improving four-year-old colt but he is untried over the marathon two-and-a-half-mile distance of the Ascot contest.
I would rather be on the John and Thady Gosden pair, TRAWLERMAN and Sweet Willam. If the trip was two miles, I would prefer the latter but the former is the more dour stayer judged on his second to Kyprios, beaten just a length, in last year’s Ascot Gold Cup. So back Trawlerman, only 1 point each way at 8-1, that price being offered by the majority of bookmakers.
On the ante-post front, I also want to back a horse at a big price in the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate Handicap at Newcastle on 28 June. Trainer Michael Bell’s horse DUKE OF OXFORD ran a modest race from an outside draw in the Chester Cup last month for a second successive year.
However, the reality is that this five-year-old gelding is much better on an all-weather surface than turf as he showed when third in the Northumberland Plate last season. He is likely to run off a 5 lb higher mark a year on but that is because he won two all-weather handicaps at Kempton at the end of last year.
I suspect this race is his main target for the season and so back Duke of Oxford 1 point each way at 33-1, four places, for this year’s Plate, those odds being offered by all the main bookies that have priced up the race, including bet365, SkyBet, Paddy Power, William Hill and Unibet.
Pending:
2 points win American Affair at 5-1 for the Temple Stakes.
2 points win Ghostwriter at SP for the Tattersalls Gold Cup.
1 point each way Trawlerman at 8-1 for the Ascot Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Duke of Oxford at 33-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places
Last weekend: – 6 points.
1 point each way Austrian Theory at 8-1 for theKnights Solicitors Handicap, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Zain Blue at 10-1for the Knights Solicitors Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Cover Up at 17-2 for the Hong Kong Jockey Club Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2025 flat season running total – 7.8 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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